中國(guó)對(duì)區(qū)域外力量投射型后勤的長(zhǎng)期意向

關(guān)于在印度洋、南太平洋甚至南大西洋增設(shè)海外基地的猜測(cè)有很多。沒有很好的證據(jù)表明他們的意圖。人們必須從行為中推斷出意圖，但觀察到的事實(shí)符合范圍廣泛的假設(shè)。

中國(guó)抵御封鎖的能力

隨著烏克蘭沖突再次凸顯，中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人必須預(yù)料到一場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易造成巨大破壞。即使美軍沒有像解放軍作者假設(shè)的那樣實(shí)施正式的軍事封鎖，美國(guó)的大規(guī)模制裁和激烈的沖突，也會(huì)產(chǎn)生大致相同的結(jié)果。很難評(píng)估幾乎完全停止貿(mào)易，將如何影響在戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)作的大陸規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)體。中國(guó)的關(guān)鍵資源儲(chǔ)備有多大？他們面對(duì)敵人的攻擊時(shí)有多脆弱？如果嚴(yán)格的配給抵消了軍事消耗的大幅增長(zhǎng)，中國(guó)戰(zhàn)時(shí)的消耗率會(huì)是多少？如果與俄羅斯保持友好，他們可以期望獲得多少物資？如果不保持友好，又有多少？經(jīng)濟(jì)中斷會(huì)在什么時(shí)候影響解放軍的作戰(zhàn)能力？

國(guó)防動(dòng)員制度將如何運(yùn)作

中國(guó)建立了一個(gè)精心設(shè)計(jì)的機(jī)構(gòu)，來(lái)動(dòng)員民間資源以支持軍事行動(dòng)。如果該系統(tǒng)按計(jì)劃運(yùn)行，它將提供數(shù)千輛卡車、輪船和飛機(jī)及其機(jī)組人員、數(shù)萬(wàn)名技術(shù)人員和機(jī)械師，以及數(shù)百萬(wàn)噸物資來(lái)補(bǔ)充解放軍的后勤。我們才剛剛開始挖掘有關(guān)國(guó)防動(dòng)員和民兵后勤網(wǎng)絡(luò)的大量公開信息。初步研究記錄了巨大的能力水平，以及該系統(tǒng)中存在許多未解決的挑戰(zhàn)。關(guān)于“國(guó)防動(dòng)員是人民戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的秘密武器”這一觀點(diǎn)，它是大大增加了解放軍保障能力的秘密武器，還是會(huì)在真正的沖突中崩潰的、巨大的魯布-戈德堡裝置？目前的研究還沒有能力來(lái)做出任何有依據(jù)的判斷。這個(gè)問題是解放軍研究中最重要的未解問題之一。

建議

越來(lái)越多的論文和會(huì)議開始關(guān)注解放軍后勤，這點(diǎn)令人鼓舞，但這些努力尚未有質(zhì)的突破。使后勤成為如此重要話題的關(guān)鍵問題仍未得到解答，因此尚不清楚解放軍今天能否在靠近中國(guó)的地區(qū)進(jìn)行大規(guī)模戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，以及在可預(yù)見的未來(lái)是否能夠在遠(yuǎn)離中國(guó)的地區(qū)打一場(chǎng)中等規(guī)模的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。俄羅斯軍隊(duì)在烏克蘭出人意料的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，凸顯了這個(gè)問題的重要性。因?yàn)樵S多人認(rèn)為，世界上最強(qiáng)大的軍隊(duì)之一的表現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重不佳，部分原因是后勤不善。美國(guó)和中國(guó)自己都需要密切關(guān)注中國(guó)軍事后勤在類似壓力下的表現(xiàn)。

解放軍如何能很好地持續(xù)保障靠近中國(guó)的大規(guī)模沖突？這需要超越解放軍的建制后勤能力，就像中國(guó)人自己說(shuō)的一樣，將其視為全社會(huì)的人民戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)事業(yè)。這需要更深入地研究國(guó)防動(dòng)員委員會(huì)、解放軍省級(jí)軍區(qū)（PMD）系統(tǒng)以及直接參與解放軍機(jī)動(dòng)行動(dòng)后勤保障的民兵力量。除了參與南海和東海任務(wù)的海上民兵部隊(duì)外，目前研究中國(guó)民兵的熱情還不高。與彈道導(dǎo)彈、戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)和兩棲機(jī)械化合成兵種旅相比，民兵規(guī)模龐大、分散、多樣化，而且老實(shí)說(shuō)很乏味。如果要真正專業(yè)地研究后勤，那么觀察家們就不能忽視駐扎在省軍區(qū)系統(tǒng)和民兵部隊(duì)中的解放軍后勤的龐大組成部分。

幸運(yùn)的是，中國(guó)為軍事行動(dòng)動(dòng)員民間支持的機(jī)構(gòu)，就其性質(zhì)而言，必須公開存在，且與之互動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)體是可見的。因此對(duì)美國(guó)和其他國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，在一定程度上，這些信息也是可見的。問題不在于尋找數(shù)據(jù)，而在于如何處理大量低價(jià)值數(shù)據(jù)，以形成清晰的畫面。（江曉博/編譯 知遠(yuǎn)戰(zhàn)略與防務(wù)研究所）

【1】US Naval War College/China Maritime Studies Institute, Quick Look Report: Large-Scale Amphibious Warfare in Chinese Military Strategy (Newport, RI: US Naval War College, 2021)

【2】China’s Military Power Projection and U.S. National Interests: Hearings before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 116th Cong. (2020)

【3】Joel Wuthnow, “Joint Logistics Force Support to Theater Commands,” in PLA Logistics and Sustainment: PLA Conference 2022, ed. George R. Shatzer and Roger D. Cliff (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College Press, 2023); and Joshua Arostegui and James R. (J. R.) Sessions, “PLA Army Logistics,” in PLA Logistics and Sustainment: PLA Conference 2022, ed. George R. Shatzer and Roger D. Cliff (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College Press, 2023).

【4】Erin Richter and Benjamin Rosen, “China’s National Defense Mobilization System: Foundation for Military Logistics,” in PLA Logistics and Sustainment: PLA Conference 2022, ed. George R. Shatzer and Roger D. Cliff (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College Press, 2023); Devin Thorne, Inside China’s National Defense Mobilization Reform: Capacity Surveys, Mobilization Resources, and “New-type” Militias (Washington, DC: Recorded Future Insikt Group, March 10, 2022)

【5】Alex Stone and Peter Wood, China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy: A View from Chinese Strategists(Montgomery, AL: China Aerospace Studies Institute/US Air University, 2020)

【6】Conor M. Kennedy, Civil Transport in PLA Power Projection, China Maritime Report No. 4 (Montgomery, AL: China Maritime Studies Institute/US Air University, 2019); J. Michael Dahm, Chinese Ferry Tales: The PLA’s Use of Civilian Shipping in Support of Over-the-shore Logistics, China Maritime Report No. 16 (Montgomery, AL: China Maritime Studies Institute/US Air University, 2021); and Chung Chieh and Andrew N. D. Yang, “Crossing the Strait: Recent Trends in PLA ‘Strategic Delivery’ Capabilities,” in The PLA Beyond Borders: Chinese Military Operations in Regional and Global Context, ed. Joel Wuthnow et al. (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2021).

【7】Isaac B. Kardon, “China’s Overseas Base, Places, and Far Seas Logistics,” in The PLA Beyond Borders: Chinese Military Operations in Regional and Global Context, ed. Joel Wuthnow et al. (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2021); Rayan V. Bhagwagar, “China’s Overseas Military Bases,” Modern Diplomacy (website), August 31, 2020

【8】Phillip C. Saunders, “Command and Control of Overseas Operations in a Reformed PLA,” in The PLA Beyond Borders: Chinese Military Operations in Regional and Global Context, ed. Joel Wuthnow et al. (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2021).

【9】Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, and Matthew P. Funaiole, “The PLA’s Growing Airpower Projection Capabilities in the Western Theater Command,” in PLA Logistics and Sustainment: PLA Conference 2022, ed. George R. Shatzer and Roger D. Cliff (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College Press, 2023); Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), “How Is China Expanding Its Infrastructure to Project Power along Its Western Borders?,” China Power Project (website), May 2022

【10】James E. Fanell, “China’s Global Navy: Today’s Challenge for the United States and the U.S. Navy,” Naval War College Review 73, no. 4 (2020); How Xi Jinping’s ‘New Era’ Should Have Ended U.S. Debate on Beijing’s Ambitions: Hearing before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 116th Cong. (statement of Daniel Tobin, China Studies faculty, National Defense University, March 2020)

【11】China’s Logistic Support to Expeditionary Operations: Hearing before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 116th Cong. (statement of Kevin McCauley, February 20, 2020)；Conor M. Kennedy, Civil Transport in PLA Power Projection, China Maritime Report No. 4 (Newport, RI: China Maritime Studies Institute/ US Naval War College, December 2019); and Lonnie D. Henley, Civilian Shipping and Maritime Militia: The Logistics Backbone of a Taiwan Invasion, China Maritime Report No. 21 (Newport, RI: US Naval War College, 2022)

【12】David M. Finkelstein, “Breaking the Paradigm: Drivers behind the PLA’s Current Period of Reform,” in Phillip C. Saunders et al., eds., Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA: Assessing Chinese Military Reforms (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2019); and Joel Wuthnow, “Joint Logistics Force Support to Theater Commands,” in PLA Logistics and Sustainment: PLA Conference 2022, ed. George R. Shatzer and Roger D. Cliff (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College Press, 2023).

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